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EST. 2012 · FANTASY FOOTBALL

WEEK THREE

RECAP

NO HEDGING · NO WALKBACKS · NO APOLOGIES
Editor's Note

I am on thin ice. The Commissioner's office put it in writing this week, publicly, and Fellowship signed on to a second letter accusing me of angling for the gavel. The charge from the office was specific and, in two places, correct: I have been walking back predictions the moment a single Sunday went against them, and I have been ranking twelve teams by adding up points that already happened and calling it analysis.

So here is how this column is different. The power rankings below are forward-looking and three teams are ranked above or below their record on purpose, including one you will not enjoy. Nothing gets walked back. Where I was wrong I am replacing the take with a harder one, not retreating from it. The bench obsession is now a standing feature, because the office suggested I might be onto something and I intend to prove it. And there are three trades on the table, named and argued, because the office asked for those too.

If this is the last column, it will not be because I got quieter.

Three teams are unbeaten, two are winless, and the gap between the best roster in this league and the worst record in it has almost nothing to do with talent. Week 3 averaged 111.32 points, produced the lowest score of the season, and featured a game that was decided entirely by which players an owner forgot to move into his lineup.

WEEK 3 SCOREBOARD League average 111.32
FELLOWSHIP
140.12
BRIDGE FOUR
122.68
Fannin 24.1, Henry 21.9, Adams 20.7, Olave 19.7
KRAEMERICA
134.30
HOPE IS COMING
93.14
Smith-Njigba 35.36, Geno Smith 26.04, Pickens 15.2
HAHA
126.74
OLD SCHOOL
97.52
Drake London 28.4, McCaffrey 21.6, Higgins 21.0
SCALABRINE
123.64
ZADDY
94.16
Bowers 27.6, Chase 24.8, Dak 18.94, Javonte 18.3
CKWADE
118.44
BRUISERS
102.96
Gibbs 41.4, Bo Nix 24.14, Watson 22.6
WOLFHOUNDS
110.86
HOUSE OF WENKE
71.30
Walker 21.3, Goff 19.36, Kelce 13.9
STANDINGS · THROUGH WEEK 3 Record, then points
#TeamRecPoints
1
FELLOWSHIP
3-0
443.10
2
WOLFHOUNDS
3-0
397.14
3
KRAEMERICA
3-0
375.30
4
SCALABRINE
2-1
375.30
5
CKWADE
2-1
348.24
6
BRUISERS
1-2
347.84
7
BRIDGE FOUR
1-2
324.52
8
HAHA
1-2
311.38
9
HOPE IS COMING
1-2
308.40
10
ZADDY
1-2
293.20
11
OLD SCHOOL
0-3
312.12
12
HOUSE OF WENKE
0-3
266.38

THE BENCH REPORT

The office asked what my obsession is with benched players. Here is the answer, and it is now a permanent fixture of this column. Every owner in this league can draft. Twelve of twelve have talent on the roster. The only thing that separates them week to week is which nine names get moved into the lineup by kickoff, and that is the one decision the box score makes public.

Week 3 did not just illustrate the point. It settled a game with it.

POINTS LEFT ON THE BENCH Week 3 · Correctable only
ZADDYMcLaurin 19.7 and Jakobi Meyers 19.4 sat while McMillan 3.7 and Bateman 5.7 started. Lost by 29.48.
+29.7
HOUSE OF WENKEKyren Williams 21.8 and Jordan Love 18.48 sat. Achane left his game hurt and finished with 1.7.
+28.6
HOPE IS COMINGBrock Purdy 31.28 sat behind Lamar Jackson's 20.44. Second straight week Purdy outscored the starter.
+10.8
OLD SCHOOLJacoby Brissett 25.6 sat behind Kyler Murray's 10.42. Fourth quarterback tried in three weeks.
+15.2
CKWADESam Darnold 27.66 and Jordan Addison 20.0 sat. Won by 15.48 anyway.
+19.7

Zaddy lost a football game to his own lineup card. Terry McLaurin scored 19.7 and Jakobi Meyers scored 19.4, and both watched from the bench while Tetairoa McMillan put up 3.7 and Rashod Bateman put up 5.7 in the starting lineup. That is a 29.7-point correction available at no cost, in a game lost by 29.48. Start the right two receivers and Zaddy is 2-1 today. He is 1-2 instead.

"Every owner in this league can draft. Not every owner can fill out a lineup card by one o'clock."

THE GAMBIT HITS BOTTOM

71.30 points. The lowest score any team has posted this season. De'Von Achane went down hurt during the game and finished with 1.7, which is nobody's fault and exactly the risk you accept when four of your top picks play the same position. The part that is somebody's fault: Kyren Williams scored 21.8 on the bench for the second consecutive Sunday, and Jordan Love added 18.48 from that same bench while Matthew Stafford was the team's leading scorer at 20.9.

Here is the three-week ledger on the boldest draft strategy in recent league history. The running backs Wenke started in Weeks 1, 2 and 3 produced 34.4, 42.7 and 18.1 points. That is 95.2 points total from four backs taken inside the top 40 picks. Kyren Williams alone has scored 37.5 from the bench in the last two weeks.

I want to be precise about the criticism, because it is not the one the group chat is making. The theory was defensible. Corner a position, create a surplus, force the rest of the league to negotiate. What has actually sunk it is execution: three weeks of starting the wrong three backs out of four, and a receiving corps that produced 20.3 points on Sunday because every name in it was drafted for what it used to be. 0-3 with the fewest points in the league is not bad luck. It is a plan nobody has executed.

WHAT I SAID, AND WHERE IT STANDS

Hope is Coming misses the playoffs. Unchanged, and strengthened. Justin Jefferson scored 5.2. Kyle Pitts scored 1.5. The defending champion has now been outscored by the league average in all three weeks, has lost by 30 and 41 in consecutive games, and is 1-2 with the ninth-most points. I made this call in August and I will be making it in December.

Fellowship is overrated. Retired, because three weeks of the highest scores in the league is evidence and I am not in the business of ignoring it. Now the part he will want to read twice. Fellowship is 3-0 and has beaten teams scoring 90.40, 122.68 and 83.26. This roster peaks in October: Davante Adams is 34, Derrick Henry is 32, and Harold Fannin's 24.1 at tight end is not a number that repeats. He is also shopping the second-best quarterback in this league while starting one who scored 12.62 on Sunday, which is the behavior of a man who knows the window is a window. So no, Fellowship is not overrated anymore. Fellowship is expiring, and the owner writing me letters in September about my ambitions should spend that energy on his December roster instead. Two title-game losses and one ring in three tries says he has been here before. It does not say he knows how to finish.

Bridge Four is my dark horse. Unchanged. They scored 122.68 on Sunday and lost. That is more points than seven teams put up. Garrett Wilson went for 26.7, CeeDee for 20.2, and the record says 1-2 because the schedule has handed them the second-highest scorer in the league twice already. The engine works.

THREE TRADES THAT SHOULD HAPPEN

The office asked for these, so here they are with names attached. Nobody has to take my advice. Everybody has to read it.

THE ONE THAT HAS TO HAPPEN
House of Wenke sends Kyren Williams  ·  Ckwade sends Malik Nabers

Ckwade's entire backfield behind Jahmyr Gibbs is Jadarian Price, who scored 1.2 on Sunday, and two waiver fliers. Wenke has four top-40 running backs and a receiving corps that produced 20.3 points in Week 3. One team has a surplus the other needs and the reverse is also true. If this call has not been made by Friday, both owners have decided that being right is worth more than winning.

THE QUARTERBACK SWAP
Fellowship sends Patrick Mahomes  ·  Old School sends Brian Thomas Jr.

Mahomes is on the block, confirmed by the owner. He has scored 66.5 points this season without entering a lineup once. Old School has cycled through four starters in three weeks and just left Brissett's 25.6 on the bench while Kyler Murray posted 10.42. Fellowship converts a bench luxury into a young receiver. Old School gets the position solved for the rest of the year.

THE ONE NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT
Zaddy sends Terry McLaurin  ·  Hope is Coming sends Brock Purdy

Zaddy has five startable receivers and cannot decide which two to play, which is how he lost a game by 29 with 39 points of them on the bench. His quarterback scored 3.76. Hope is Coming has Purdy rotting behind Lamar Jackson and a receiving corps where Justin Jefferson put up 5.2 and Kyle Pitts managed 1.5. Both rosters are one position away. This is the easiest phone call on the board.

THE MAILBAG

Two letters arrived at the press table this week. Both are printed here, because a column that only runs the friendly mail is not a column.

From the Commissioner's Office
"You're on thin ice, pal. You made some bold predictions at the start of the season, which I respect, but any time something happens that contradicts your prediction, you walk it back with your tail between your legs. Have some pride man, and some more conviction in your takes. Also, stop ordering the power rankings just based on points scored. There's a lot more that goes into it. Also what is your obsession with bench players? Maybe you're onto something there. If it was up to me, I want more controversial takes from you. How about a few trade suggestions? House of Wenke could use it. Lastly I've heard rumors that you're gunning for the commissioner spot next season. Stay in your lane, pal."
Chet: Three of four charges accepted and answered in this column. The fourth is fiction. I have no vote, no veto, and no interest in the gavel. What I have is a notebook and fourteen years of tape. I would also point out that this week's rankings have the Commissioner's 3-0 team at fourth, with the reasoning attached, which is a strange way to campaign for his endorsement.
From The Fellowship
"Chet trying to play friendly now, we know who you are Chet. Nobody is being fooled by your true ambitions with taking over the league. Pat Mahomes is available for trade if you'd like to mention that in your column."
Chet: Mentioned, and listed above as the second-best deal available in this league. On the other matter, I have now been accused of a coup by two separate franchises in the space of a week, and both of them are undefeated. The letters did not arrive when I was calling these teams contenders. They arrived when I started writing about benches. Draw your own conclusions.

ODDS AND ENDS

Jahmyr Gibbs scored 41.4, the highest individual total of the season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 35.36 was the second. Both owners won comfortably.

Brock Bowers returned from injury and scored 27.6, the highest tight end total in the league. Two weeks ago I wrote that his absence had moved Scalabrine into the bottom third of this league on paper. He is fourth in this week's rankings. That is not a walkback, that is new information, and there is a difference.

Kraemerica is 3-0 and has led the league in exactly nothing. No weekly high score, no individual monster, no headline. They have also not lost. That is the profile of the owner who wins this thing, and the reason they are ranked first this week.

POWER RANKINGS · WEEK 3

Forward-looking, as requested. These are not the standings and they are not sorted by points. They are where I would rather own each roster for the next eleven weeks.

1
KraemericaMoving them past two teams with better point totals, on purpose. Smith-Njigba went for 35.36, Geno Smith 26.04, and the bench produced Luther Burden 19.8 and Matthew Golden 21.0 without being needed. This is the only unbeaten roster whose best football is in front of it. Jeanty is a rookie who will be better in November than he is now.
3-0
2
FellowshipMost points in the league by 46 and the only team yet to score under 140. I am formally retiring the overrated take, and replacing it with a harder one: this roster peaks in October. Adams is 34, Henry is 32, and Fannin's 24.1 is the kind of tight end week that does not repeat. Banking wins now is exactly the right strategy, because the back half will not look like this.
3-0
3
ScalabrineBrock Bowers returned and scored 27.6. That single line changes the entire outlook. Add Chase at 24.8 and a quarterback room where the starter posted 18.94 and the backup posted 19.78 from the bench, and the team I had buried in September is the best 2-1 in the league. Buying.
2-1
4
WolfhoundsYes, this is the Commissioner at 3-0 ranked fourth, and yes, I expect to hear about it. The argument: 191.66 in Week 1 is doing all the work in that point total. The last two weeks produced 94.62 and 110.86 against opponents who scored 85.30 and 71.30. Jonathan Taylor has gone 25.1, 29.2, 9.2. Travis Kelce is in the flex. Undefeated and unconvincing are not mutually exclusive, and I would rather be early than polite.
3-0
5
CkwadeGibbs went for 41.4, the highest individual score of the season. Everything else is a question. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve, the second running back scored 1.2, and Sam Darnold outscored the starting quarterback from the bench. Trade the receiver depth for a back and this is a top-three roster.
2-1
6
HaHa126.74 and the best one-win team in the league. McCaffrey 21.6, Drake London 28.4, Higgins 21.0, and Michael Wilson dropped 25.9 from the bench. The Tyreek Hill waiver claim was the swing this owner always takes. Three weeks in, the variance machine is pointed in the right direction and the record has not caught up.
1-2
7
Bridge FourLost with 122.68, which is more than seven teams scored. Garrett Wilson 26.7 and CeeDee 20.2 with Saquon Barkley contributing 9.0. Third straight competent score and still 1-2. I named them my dark horse in August and I have not moved off it. The points are there. The schedule has been cruel.
1-2
8
BruisersPuka Nacua has now posted 12.4, 0.0 and 0.0, and Josh Allen's 17.46 was his quietest week. The ceiling still exists but it depends entirely on rookies at running back. Two losses in a row and the roster has not answered a single question it opened the season with.
1-2
9
Old School312.12 points, more than two teams with wins, and an 0-3 record. This is the unluckiest team in the league and it is not close. Bijan went for 35.3 on Sunday. Fix the quarterback position and this is a playoff team, which is why the Mahomes call matters more here than anywhere.
0-3
10
Hope is ComingJustin Jefferson 5.2. Kyle Pitts 1.5. Marvin Harrison 7.0. The defending champion has been outscored by the league average in all three weeks and has now lost by 30 and by 41. I said in August this team misses the playoffs. Three weeks of evidence later, I am not moving, I am not hedging, and I am not writing a correction in December.
1-2
11
ZaddyThe roster I called the best in the league is now the worst-managed one. Two receivers worth 39.1 points on the bench in a game lost by 29.48. Drake Maye scored 3.76. Juwan Johnson put up 23.3 behind Kittle. The talent is real and the lineup card is costing this team games it has already won on paper.
1-2
12
House of Wenke71.30, the lowest score anyone has posted all season, with Achane going down hurt mid-game for 1.7. The four backs drafted inside the top 40 have produced 95.2 points in three weeks of starts. Kyren Williams has scored 37.5 from the bench in the last two. The gambit has not failed because the theory was wrong. It has failed because cornering a position means nothing if you start the wrong three.
0-3

Three unbeaten, two winless, one owner who lost a game to his own bench, and a press table that may or may not have a chair next week. Week 4 is Sunday. I will be here until somebody moves the desk.

Chet McNulty has covered the Basement League since 2012. He has attended every draft, witnessed all fourteen championships, and has never once been allowed to vote on a trade veto.